1000 math PhDs got this wrong - the Monty Hall problem

[skimpi]

youd feel a twat if you swapped and you had chose the car tho

thats the thing with like chance and shit, and things like this, like yeah its more likely, but that means fuck all really lol, theres always gonna be the ones who chose the car out of 1/3 chance in the first place.

[rickyarbino]

Well if it's just assumption then it isn't necessarily true is it? You could have been right, switching could throw it off, no? Like, it would be the same set up if you had chosen the other door, since the presenter opened a door you didn't choose, wouldn't it?

[skimpi]

hang on what if when he opens the first door theres a car and not a goat lol

[rickyarbino]

What do you mean? That doesn't affect the chances of the guess.

[skimpi]

well it means theres no point changin cos you got a goat

what if there are 3 goats and the game show is a fix?

[mks]

You know, goats are really loud. I would choose the quiet door.

[Muncey]

I think the real question is what type of desperate to stay relevant tnuc would host such a game show?

[wub]

I think the real question is what type of desperate to stay relevant tnuc would host such a game show?

[Muncey]

[wub]

"Now on ITV, it's time for another of episode of 'Goat, Goat, Car!', with your host Bradley Walsh!"

[Muncey]

I thought it'd be better suited to Channel 4, followed by a debate about animal cruelty ft. Jodie Marsh.

[AxeD]

There's an awful lot of people who don't seem to care about actually understanding why you have twice the chance of winning the car when changing.
Think it's a lot of fun personally, at first you just can't get over the assumption that it would
be 1 in 2

[lovelydivot]

Not sure you got it and lovelydivot doesn't seem to be completely convinced either

No, I get it now I worked it out...I am completely convinced.

Switch for better odds.

[skimpi]

There's an awful lot of people who don't seem to care about actually understanding why you have twice the chance of winning the car when changing.
Think it's a lot of fun personally, at first you just can't get over the assumption that it would
be 1 in 2

No i get like the "rules" or whatever, but like there is a chance that you picked the car in the first place, its not impossible that you pick the car in your first go lol, just more likely

[rickyarbino]

[Lye_Form]

Bumpage Jesslem.

I never got why this was difficult or up for debate (didn't a maths professor from oxford/Cambridge write an article about how it didn't make any difference switching?)

BM i just ran it 3000 times using the random number feature in excel b2b removing one goat (un-selected randomly from each) http://www.mediafire.com/view/yru1rgjjq ... oblem.xlsx

Switch = Car 1989 out of 3000
Stick = 1011 Out of 3000

[rickyarbino]

Did you watch the video? I thought it was pretty obvious too, but then the plot thickened.

[Lye_Form]

Yeah idk why she went into having 100 doors lol already explained it pretty well.

Tbf the hardest thing with this is explaining to people why it works like it does. Particularly if you are a bit pissed.