Bitcoin

[Phigure]

except that bitcoin doesn't really work that way lol

[deadly_habit]

With all the people and popular wallstreet media coverage, it's very easy to manipulate the market lol.

Robert McMillan, a former economist with the U.S. Federal Trade Commission and Stanford economist, currently Head of Portfolio Management and Director of Quantitative Research at HNC Advisors AG:

Bitcoin is dead. Long live Bitcoin. The value of having an easy-to-store, hard-to-steal, and hard-to-counterfeit medium of exchange is substantial. Especially one which doesn’t lead to the extermination of species (e.g. cowry shells, ivory) or direct environmental degradation (e.g. gold). Unfortunately, as those familiar with Paul Krugman’s writings on liquidity traps know, Bitcoin’s known and finite supply dooms it as a workable replacement currency. Furthermore, as it has no apparent use-value (unlike, say, Platinum), this kills it entirely. Nevertheless, the flaw lies with the implementation, rather than the idea itself. I expect Bitcoin (“BC”) will soon see competition in this space from “Currency 3.0″ entrants that fix the flaws in Bitcoin and thus have a better (i.e. nonzero) chance of achieving the “gold standard” of currency acceptance, namely a liquid market in Forex forwards with another major currency. At any rate, be on the lookout for Awesome Drachmas (“AD”) using newly-discovered prime numbers as units of exchange. They’re costly to “mine”, in infinite supply, and even have use-value (e.g. cryptography). Coming soon to a money-changer near you!


Brett Gordon, currently a Professor at Columbia’s Graduate School of Business:

There are two scopes for discussion about the future of bitcoin. First, the short-term: if this is a bubble, when will it burst? It’s notoriously difficult to predict the end of a speculative bubble. Those lucky enough to time it correctly can make a lot of money, but that won’t be true for the rest of us mere mortals. The price chart for bitcoins reminds me of the Nasdaq from 1995 to early 2000. Clearly, these are vastly different, but I think the Nasdaq plot is representative of many yet-to-burst bubble prices. The Google Trends chart for bitcoins is similarly shaped, which suggests that when the media frenzy over the digital currency subsides, so too may much of investors’ interest. Second, the long-term: what will the bitcoin market look like in 5-10 years? That’s even harder than calling the peak of a bubble. I think a significant contribution of the bitcoin market is that it serves as a proof-of-concept for a decentralized crypto-currency. Two benefits are that bitcoins are inherently deflationary and transactions are anonymous. Given the recent slew of fiscal crises and increasing concerns about online privacy, these are two strong points in bitcoin’s favor—or whatever future crypto-currency arises.

http://techcrunch.com/2013/04/14/iterat ... ns-future/

[Phigure]

yeah but that doesn't have anything to do with a ponzi scheme

[deadly_habit]

yeah but that doesn't have anything to do with a ponzi scheme

The Ponzi scheme usually entices new investors by offering higher returns than other investments, in the form of short-term returns that are either abnormally high or unusually consistent. Perpetuation of the high returns requires an ever-increasing flow of money from new investors to keep the scheme going.

I'd say this recent bubble (due to media hype) shares some similarities to a Ponzi scheme, which is what I was saying, not that it actually is one.

http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin

There are going to be some very disappointed people out there investing in bitcoin with its volatile nature, and some people getting rich who are aware of this and all the attention the media has been giving it recently (I'm sure some of the people writing these articles are going to be amongst the profiteers).

[Phigure]

They're not really at all comparable at all though IMO. In a ponzi scheme, there's a person fraudulently deceiving people and promising a return. It's like a pyramid scheme but essentially just with two tiers. With bitcoin, it's nothing like that.

Of course the market can be manipulated, but you can do that with any stocks, currencies, or commodities as well, and it'd be just as silly to compare those to a ponzi scheme.

[deadly_habit]

Of course the market can be manipulated, but you can do that with any stocks, currencies, or commodities as well, and it'd be just as silly to compare those to a ponzi scheme.

And why is that? They operate on essentially the same level, just one occupies a legal grey area where you get a slap on the wrist if you get caught.

[Phigure]

Because the fundamental aspect of a ponzi scheme is that there's someone fraudulently misrepresenting the investment and the expected returns. In the case of bitcoin, it was just a price increase that caused a spike in media coverage, which led to a further price increase and short term bubble.

[deadly_habit]

Because the fundamental aspect of a ponzi scheme is that there's someone fraudulently misrepresenting the investment and the expected returns. In the case of bitcoin, it was just a price increase that caused a spike in media coverage, which led to a further price increase and short term bubble.

The spike in price is due to the media coverage, now they're further inflating the bubble, however short term.
All these speculations are fraudulent misrepresentations, especially by the people who haven't followed Bitcoin since it's start, or even say 3 years ago to realize it's flaws.
Like I said the only difference is a matter of legal grey areas.
Hell it's the key reason Bitcoin exists.

[Phigure]

it was steady at $13 and started going up a bit. then it surpassed $30 (the previous high) and that's where the media coverage really spiked and caused the extreme growth to ~260 (and the subsequent collapse)

i don't really see any fraudulent behavior in this scenario

fraud·u·lent
/ˈfrôjələnt/
"Obtained, done by, or involving deception, esp. criminal deception: "the fraudulent copying of American software"

it's nothing more than a typical case of the media being uninformed and misinformed when reporting on something.

what would you say are its most problematic flaws? cause i think the only real potential issue is the deflation that will occur as it approaches and then reaches the supply cap of 21 million

[Shum]

are there any derivatives markets for bitcoin? if there isn't then there will be sooner rather than later and that will take up the slack as bitcoin approaches supply cap one suspects.

[Phigure]

i don't think they exist yet, but i'm sure they're going to soon after this recent event. a bitcoin derivatives market would also do much to stabilize the price

[deadly_habit]

My key issues with it is that it's essentially going to be at best a transitional digital currency until something better comes along.
Stable price/value is one issue, it being a limited supply is another (supply being infinite is one of those issues most have with digital goods, just look at piracy when it's essentially infinite supply).
It not having taken off and generally being a resource hog for generation is another (though they're getting better with lite clients).
Security concerns another, especially with more and more attention will come more and more attempts at exploits.
A major one, it's just not convenient.

I think digital currency is going to be a very real thing at some point as people are at a boiling point as is with economies failing and paper money being just as valueless when it comes to a guarantee as 1s and 0s on a computer.

[lowphat]

Bitcoin should never, in theory, reach the cap of 21 million just FYI

[Phigure]

My key issues with it is that it's essentially going to be at best a transitional digital currency until something better comes along.
Stable price/value is one issue, it being a limited supply is another (supply being infinite is one of those issues most have with digital goods, just look at piracy when it's essentially infinite supply).
It not having taken off and generally being a resource hog for generation is another (though they're getting better with lite clients).
Security concerns another, especially with more and more attention will come more and more attempts at exploits.
A major one, it's just not convenient.

I think digital currency is going to be a very real thing at some point as people are at a boiling point as is with economies failing and paper money being just as valueless when it comes to a guarantee as 1s and 0s on a computer.

although i do think something better will come along and supercede bitcoin, i don't think most of those are really that bad (aside from possibly the limited supply)

stable price will come soon. as more businesses and individual start to accept bitcoin, it'll actually be tied to somewhat of an economy behind it. like i said above, things like derivatives markets will also help.

i think it has taken off fairly well over the last few years. all the silk road trading can be seen as a pretty big success in itself. and now the "real" take off is coming due to all this recent attention. the resource hogging only affects people who are mining. the vast majority of users don't. bitcoin relies on a certain number of miners, so if people stopped mining entirely, there could be problems. but the overall cost of the resources to mine is still far lower than the bitcoins earned. the mining process gradually becomes less efficient as it approaches the supply cap, so in theory the profit margin could become too small to incentivize people to mine. but computing power also gets cheaper over time and i imagine that it'll easily keep up with the decreased efficiency.

security is not a concern at all, the cryptography used is impossible to crack with today's technology. and if it ever did become possible to crack it, the bitcoin protocol can be upgraded with relative ease. the biggest possible threat would actually be if a party reached 51% of the computing power (and would therefore be processing the majority of transactions). since bitcoin is consensus based, that would allow someone to basically manipulate bitcoins and transactions however they wished

conveniency is certainly still an issue at the moment, but even nowadays, it's already far more convenient than it was 2-3 years ago. new utilities and services will keep making it more convenient.

Bitcoin should never, in theory, reach the cap of 21 million just FYI

yeah this is true both in a mathematical and practical way.

it'll approach 21 million asymptotically
and
it's projected at around 20.95 million in 2044, and i imagine it'll be replaced by another digital currency before then

[deadly_habit]

It's going to be a matter of who gets there first and I don't think it's going to be Bitcoin.
I have a feeling it's going to go down something like Paypal or Ebay.

[kidshuffle]

http://www.joeydevilla.com/2013/04/18/w ... rce=feedly

[kidshuffle]

http://www.joeydevilla.com/2013/04/18/w ... rce=feedly

[Phigure]

well, no shit, he's just using his regular ass computer. you're not gonna be making anything significant without investing in an actual mining rig


also, to anyone who was posting concerns about the power consumption of mining, that's not really going to be an issue any longer since the first wave of mining ASICs are coming around in the next few weeks. they're processors built specifically for the type of calculation involved in mining, and they're easily 100 times more efficient (that's a conservative estimate too)

[gwa]

can you explain how the mining works / why you need a super pc for me phigure?


also, are you gay?

[Phigure]

you basically just have your computer run the client and it does a bunch of number crunching. the faster you can crunch numbers, the more bitcoins you'll end up getting

call me gay m8 but ive made some decent money by doing absolutely fuck all except a little bit of research and a few minutes of set up time